Analyzing homes for sale in southern Orange County

REAL ESTATE

By Gary A. Miller
Columnist

May is firmly part of the spring housing market, which historically begins in March and runs through June before tapering off into summer.  Since we are a bit past the halfway point of this year’s market and have been struggling with low inventory for many quarters in a row, I wanted to assess where things currently stand concerning pricing and home count in southern Orange County.

First, let’s look at some historical numbers.   The majority of transactions close between 14 to 45 days from the contract.  For example, most transactions going under contract in the first two weeks of May would close between mid-May and the end of June.  The table below shows the number of closed home sales in that same time period over the past five years in the zip codes of 25710, 27514, 27516, and 27517 within the boundaries of Orange County.

Year20192020202120222023
Number of Closed Sales243171222173161

There are currently 119 homes in a pending or “active under contract” category (the latter formerly known as “contingent”) and 115 in an active or coming soon status. While it is impossible to tell how many more homes will go under contract in the next few weeks, it does not seem like a stretch to assume that 2024 will end up with similar closing numbers as seen in 2022 and 2023.

Among those 115 active or coming soon listings, the inventory includes 86 detached homes, 25 condos, and 4 townhomes.  The average asking price among the 115 listings is $1,089,228 and the median is $880,000.  The price ranges of the active and coming soon listings are seen in the following table. 

Price rangeNumber of active/coming soon listings as of May 7, 2024Percentage of total available homes
$0-$249,9991210.4%
$250,000-$499,9991714.7%
$500,000-$749,9991917.5%
$750,000-$999,9991917.5%
$1,000,000-$1,499,9992622.6%
$1,500,000-$1,999,99976%
>$2,000,0001513%

The pace of sale among these listings is slower than we have experienced in recent years, with the average days on the market (DOM) being 46 and the median coming in at 22.  There are 23 new construction homes among the active listings, and a quirk of the Multiple Listing Service is that new construction homes do not accrue the DOM statistic.  So, when those are removed, the DOM average becomes 57 and the median 28, which is notably slower movement in the market in general.

While this pace generally favors buyers, we are still generally hovering around 2 months of housing supply, which remains firmly in “seller market” territory.  Buyers are still contending with mortgage rates in the upper-six and lower-seven percent range.


Gary A. Miller is co-owner of Red Bloom Realty.  He has lived and worked in Chapel Hill off and on since 1994, is an avid musician and traveler, and is a former educator of 25 years.
This reporter can be reached at Info@TheLocalReporter.press

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